The Consumer Vibe Check: Optimism, Spending & the Return to In-Store

Katie Flynn: back to The Flynn Effect. Thank you. I believe this is your sixth time on the show.

Heather Riexinger: I’m just waiting for you to give me the co-host spot so I’ll continue until that is official.

Katie Flynn: I will consider it. I will consider it. But today we’re doing something a little bit different. Normally we talk about current events, hot topics, whatever, and this isn’t, I guess, too dissimilar but there is a recent research report that has come out from Resinate that could consumer trends report fall 2025 outlook. And so we’re going to dive into the information in that, talk a little bit about consumer sentiment around things like the economy, holiday spending, health and media right now. This is something I believe that Resinate does on a quarterly basis and they track those trends over time. So we’ll probably pull it up each time as well because it just gives you a good sense of what’s in the mind’s eye of the American people at any given time. Starting with the economy.

Heather Riexinger: Everyone’s favorite topic.

Katie Flynn: Big topic. Yeah. Where do you want to start?

Heather Riexinger: Well, start with the positive, I think. So interesting thing is we are all so inundated with social media, the news, and everyone, the world is ending. Everything is always horrible. And so I think it’s important to look at reports like this and see how the average person is really feeling. And it said that, well, almost 70% of people rate the US economy as poor or fair. There is optimism going into the holiday season. So a lot of stats here saying that over the last six months, the combined number of consumers who are concerned about the economy fell by 28%. So it’s a big drop. It’s a large drop. And I don’t have breakout by income, anything like that. Even here, we would assume that there’s some disparity and some differences between those audiences. But it was really nice to see that the average person is feeling better about the economy, is feeling as we kind of get into this tariff world that things aren’t becoming too expensive. That being said, I would assume that the people that resonate is reaching out to aren’t very low income audiences. So we need to take that into account too. But it was just great to see that the average person is starting to feel a little bit better about the economy and better about their own pocketbook and the effects.

Katie Flynn: Yeah. I think it’s been interesting because while have gone up and prices of goods have gone up in many cases, there’s also been this interesting positive effect on the stock market, on people’s 401ks. And so I think if you’re able to say, OK, well, let’s just wait and see. Let’s ride out the storm and see how everything levels out. And in particular, in this report, it was saying there’s no major concerns about a crash in the 1920s right now. I kind of feel like people are just so sick of hearing about it all that they’re like, it’s fine. It’ll pass. This is how it works. We’ve all read Freakonomics. It goes in cycles and are just sort of like, let’s just not drastically change our lives and go into a depression mindset because I don’t know, let’s live while we’re alive. Or perhaps that’s just me. No. It’s just fun. But I’m kind of getting that vibe from people I’m having discussions with as well.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah. And that’s what I’m in our 401k statement came out this week and I opened it and I was like, wow, I don’t look at it regularly because I just ride it out. Don’t let it stress you. And mine was up significantly this year. I’m like, this is a nice, nice thing to see. And I think too, prices haven’t gone up in my opinion as much as we thought they would. So there was a lot of concern about the tariffs really doubling, tripling prices of certain things. And although there definitely has been price increases, they haven’t been significant to that extent.

Katie Flynn: Yeah. And I think it’s interesting too. At one time, like Amazon, for example, was marking when it was a tariff cost increase. And did they get– did they– that could take it away.

Heather Riexinger: I haven’t seen that on there in a while.

Katie Flynn: I thought it was Amazon. I can fact check myself and put it in the description. But think that transparency too of like, this isn’t just brand A deciding to charge you way more. This is because of X, Y, and Z. Helps a lot too with that sentiment around continuing to purchase.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah. And that was an interesting piece I’m sure you saw in this report as well, is the blame for the inflation changed drastically. So over time, people like to blame the brands or increases. They talk a lot about, especially in the CPG category, where, oh my gosh, my M&Ms used to be 16 ounces and now it’s 15.2 and it’s the same price. So there’s always been that discussion. And now it’s shifting to everyone is blaming the tariffs for price increases. So brands are actually getting a little reprieve from the hate and the discussion. So it’s a good time for marketers and brands that consumers aren’t as– I don’t want to say they’re not as price sensitive. They’re just as much price sensitive, but they’re not getting upset with the brands for that.

Katie Flynn: Yeah. Yeah. Well, I find that very interesting. There’s this line in Wicked, Jeff Goldblum says it, that nothing brings people together like a common enemy. That just made me think of it in terms of the tariff. And perhaps that was the plan. This is not a political podcast, so I won’t go into personal opinions. But in terms of blame, it’s both going to the government and the tariffs, which, yeah, I guess is good for the brands that we work with right now. Yeah. Corporate America is getting a little break from the hate. I mean, but there is a lot of air in those chip bags.

Heather Riexinger: There is.

Katie Flynn: I know.

Heather Riexinger: I hate a bag of chips in a couple of days. Well, there was only– That Pringles can.

Katie Flynn: There’s many in there. No, I totally hear that. But yeah, on the same point around consumer spending habits and whatnot, what I found really interesting is, yes, everybody knows that price increases are happening, that it’s government policies, that it’s tariffs that are making this happen. But people are basically saying, yeah, I’m just going to spend the same amount. I’m not going to stop myself from making bigger luxury purchases. The one place where it seemed like people were pulling back a little bit was on travel plans.

Heather Riexinger: And eating– Other than that. I saw, too, restaurants and eating out seemed to be takeout, and restaurants seemed to be getting hit a little bit there. So that’ll be interesting to see what their stock and sales are looking like at the end of the year. What’s truly being affected, or if people are just trying to cut back a little bit?

Katie Flynn: Yeah. Well, now, conversely, I found it interesting because one of the sections in this is holiday spending. And that’s kind of the opposite. People are like, yeah, I’m going to spend a little bit less. Nearly 40% of people who were pulled said that they’re planning to spend less on presents this year. And then interestingly, 60% of people said that they were planning to shop in stores. So those are two separate trends. But to speak to the first for a moment, I do think it’s interesting because this year, my immediate family, my siblings, and their partners, and my parents, we have always gotten things for everyone. And maybe it’s just because I have a young child and I don’t want to deal with it. But I was like, can we pick names this year? It’ll be cheaper for us all. We don’t need all of this stuff. Which is ironic because I have an Amazon package at my house every day. But we were all in agreement. Like, yeah, let’s cut back a little bit this year. So it was interesting to see that that’s kind of the vibe across Americans as well in a big kind of way.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah. I think people are– there’s been the trend for a few years now, I know, with having an eight-year-old is you don’t need more stuff for your kids as well. And experiences has been a big topic in the purchasing for children of buy my kid a ticket to a museum, take them somewhere. They don’t need another gift. Just take them and spend some time with them. They’ll love that even more. And then the truth is, I hear the same thing. I said to my daughter, do you want to go on vacation over Christmas? And she said, no, I want to be at home to play with my new toys. I’m like, OK,

Katie Flynn: there is still some– I hear that. No, but I think that’s a good point. I mean, we have consciously gifted families with young children like an annual pass to the zoo or the Rochester Museum and Science Center, things like that in the last few years. Because I didn’t even– you always hear everybody talk about all this stuff. And I only have a one and a half year old, but like, oh my gosh, this stuff. Why are there so many small pieces to all of these toys? And they’re in three different places in the house. Like it’s everywhere. It’s absolute chaos. So I’m fully in support of– thanks. I’m fully in support of back in town.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah. So that was good to see that Chris– people are feeling like holiday shopping will stay pretty consistent from where it’s been. To your point, the in-store shopping, there’s a few things that I’ve seen recently following a lot of retail publications is this trend for brick and mortar and shopping back in store. For years, it was the mall is gone. Why do we still have malls? And now people are enjoying them more. I know the mall right by our office is almost at capacity with stores.

Katie Flynn: The mall is– It’s always busy. I went when we were– my son was off of daycare a couple of Mondays ago. I went chaos. The Annie Ann’s line, like 100 yards back. It’s back to the 90s. I still waited. But yeah, it’s remarkable.

Heather Riexinger: And I think that that’s where some of these tariffs– this is just a personal opinion and a hypothesis– is big corporations are also being part of the problem in a lot of Americans’ views. So the Amazons, the Walmarts, the Targets. People are trying to find alternatives. And whether that’s at a mall or shopping small, they want to support those businesses and help them out. I saw locally there is a bookstore that’s being affected by some closures in streets around them. And the community rallied around to try and save the bookstore. As soon as the report came out that they need to close this longstanding bookstore, people instantly went to purchase from them to show support, which I think is really heartening.

Katie Flynn: That sounds like a homework movie. I know. In a very positive way.

Heather Riexinger: Right on the Erie Canal. So it is a Hallmark movie. They should just come and shoot it.

Katie Flynn: Yeah, we’ll pitch it. Pitch it. interesting part, which is getting to the next topic a little bit in health, is I think health care is the one place where people are very worried about what the tariffs are going to mean for drugs and for other health-related things that we all need and rely on. And a lot of what was in here was focused on vaccines and trust and things around that. And I think if you spend any amount of time on social media, you can deduce fairly quickly that trust in vaccines is going down and skepticism is going up. People are very concerned about their safety. But from a other health care and drug-related perspective, I’m not sure that that’s going to necessarily eat into people’s willingness to still take their blood pressure medicine or cholesterol medicine or those types of things. Yeah.

Heather Riexinger: And I think the conversation there still continues to be around the cost of health care and the cost of insurance. I know as a business owner, you’ve started to see some of those numbers for 26 already.

Katie Flynn: Well, actually, our meeting is next week. And we usually joke if you’re not laughing, you’re crying. The cost of insurance pretty much goes up for us as a business and for individuals 15% every year. And that is increasing accordingly to make sure that that’s not getting passed on too much to the staff. But it is wild the increases that occur every year. And as a very small business, we don’t have that benefit of having 5,000 employees where you’re really getting some of those group buying bulk discounts. But yeah, I’m nervous to see because I think it’s going to be a lot more than it has been year over year for the past couple of years.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah. And I think there’s some medications too. My daughter takes a monthly medication that costs $90 a month. We pay out of pocket with insurance for that. And luckily, we’re in a situation where that doesn’t affect us too much. But it’s just crazy the fees and where drugs are going now.

Katie Flynn: Oh, absolutely. It’s scary. But yeah, I think it remains to be seen a little bit what’s going to actually happen. We keep hearing that the prices are going to go up and up and up. But until we actually see that and consumers are feeling it, we probably won’t have the data to lag a little bit.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah.

Katie Flynn: All right, Heather. Last thing we got here is media. And this was kind of just a quick topic. They didn’t have a whole lot to say about it.

Heather Riexinger: I don’t even think I printed anything out from that section.

Katie Flynn: It was one key fact, basically where people are getting their news. And the answer is the MSNBC, New York Times, and I think the Washington Post was the last one. But interestingly enough, the local news viewership has gone down 7% in the last year, which is not nothing. And the reason I bring that up is because from a local and regional partner perspective, these traditional media placements are happening during those types of hours. And so it’ll be interesting to see if that shifts in terms of not really being premium spots anymore.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah, it is interesting. Some of it, I think, is due to the decrease in cable subscriptions and shift to streaming that some no longer have the local. But it will be interesting to see how that’s affected. I know most of our local buys are in news and in live sports. And that’s where the majority of eyes are these days. Yeah. Is still, if you’re watching live, it’s those two topics.

Katie Flynn: Yeah, it makes sense. Although I got to say, and this is not a revolutionary take, but turned on the news for like five minutes last week. Grayson was playing in the living room and we turned it on. It is probably five or six devastating stories in a row. And then I was like, I don’t want to watch this. I don’t want Grayson to even hear it. It was just like murder, school shooting, terrible thing, prices are going up here. People are losing insurance. And I was like, oh my God, I don’t want to not be aware, but I can digest it while it’s getting flung at me in that way.

Heather Riexinger: No, I get it.

Katie Flynn: I think people are protecting their piece a little bit, which is understandable.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah. And that’s why I love TikTok and just watching the nonsense that goes on. And even there, there’s a lot of political takes and bad news that you have to sift through or fact check as you watch.

Katie Flynn: I think all the more reason then for brands to be connecting with their consumers in an authentic way, right? Coming with heart. And I think, oh, there was this story and I can’t remember what actual organization it was for, but you’ve seen the recent story about the AI character that was basically given leukemia for this ad campaign. And it was like the sentiment behind it is like, right. But it just was a, ooh, you really got to make sure you’re paying attention to your audience and figuring out how something like this is going to land.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah, that was not my favorite campaign.

Katie Flynn: I think it’s, yeah, it’s an all of this, in my opinion, is an argument for authenticity in your marketing and your messaging and your experiences that you’re creating for your customers. Yeah. People are just looking for a little bit of peace. You know, in kindness.

Heather Riexinger: Yeah.

Katie Flynn: Well, all right. Those were all of my notes. Anything else that you had highlighted you wanted to discuss?

Heather Riexinger: No, it really was just nice to see that all the negative we are hit with is how the minority of people are feeling and that although we’re all being cautious and watching our investments and watching our spending, that it doesn’t feel as